CLIMATE CHANGE AS A CATALYST FOR WATER CONFLICTS

Abstract

Purpose of the work. The aim of the study is a comprehensive analysis of the impact of climate change on the escalation of water conflicts at global and regional scales, with emphasis on the situation in Ukraine, the systematization of the typology of such conflicts, and the formulation of practical recommendations to prevent and mitigate their consequences through integrated water resources management.

Methodology. The study is based on a systems approach using statistical analysis of data from the Pacific Institute (Water Conflict Chronology, 2014–2024), correlation analysis of the relationship between climate anomalies (temperature and precipitation deviations) and incident frequency, comparative regional analysis and case-study reconstruction of events in Ukraine (2014–2024). Content analysis, mapping, and empirical data systematization methods were also used.

Scientific novelty. For the first time, a synthesis of quantitative incident data with climate indicators for 2014–2024 was performed, revealing a strong positive correlation between temperature anomalies and the frequency of water conflicts (r=0.89; R²=0.79); the typology of conflicts by the role of water (‘trigger’, ‘victim’, ‘weapon’) was systematized, and the Ukrainian case demonstrates the transformation of water resources into a wartime instrument.

Conclusions. Climate change acts as a powerful threat multiplier, increasing the frequency and intensity of water conflicts; regions with high water stress are most vulnerable. The study highlights the need for integrated water management systems, early-warning preventive systems, adaptive water-saving technologies, and international water diplomacy to reduce conflict escalation. Practical significance – recommendations for national water security policy and international transboundary water governance, and concrete recommendations for policymakers and practitioners.